Copper and aluminum ore supply remains tight, supporting future metal prices

Industry viewpoint 1: The long-term price of copper concentrate TC has landed, highlighting the tense situation of copper concentrate
Event: According to SMM, sources say that Jiangxi Copper, China Copper, Tongling Nonferrous, Jinchuan Group, and Daye Nonferrous have finalized the 2025 copper concentrate long order processing fee benchmark with Antofagastat at $21.25 per ton and $2.125 per pound. In contrast, the long-term benchmark for copper concentrate processing fees in 2024 is $80/ton and $8.0/pound. On December 6th, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was reported at $10.45 per ton, an increase of $0.37 per ton from the previous period's $10.08 per ton.
Viewpoint: We believe that the long-term price of copper concentrate TC has landed, highlighting the tight supply situation of copper concentrate. According to our analysis of the supply and demand data of the copper industry in 2025, the upstream copper concentrate increment is around 600000 tons, while the midstream copper smelting capacity has increased by more than 1 million tons. The supply of copper concentrate is still tight, and the $21 copper concentrate TC price will also lead to a significant decline in profits for domestic high cost smelters, pushing up the expectation of copper smelting production reduction, and copper prices are expected to be supported.